I was struck by the pessimism in Noah Smith’s recent post on vibe-coded superviruses destroying the human race. Not because it’s not possible, but because Noah is generally an optimistic poster, and for something to freak him out to this extent is quite rare.
Bioterrorism is a genuine threat, and yes, there’s a solid case for it being one of the most probable long-term threats the world needs to be vigilant about. There are questions we all need to wrestle with, and smarter people than I have varied thoughts on this. In short, there’s multiple modes of bioterrorism, and some of them can be far more devastating than others. Viruses targeting our food supply may have the potential to wreak more havoc than those targeting us, for instance.
But all this talk of doom and gloom unsettled me a bit, so I went to my daughter’s side and stared at her for a bit. She’s three months old, and watching her sleep peacefully calmed me down enough that I started thinking about the flip side.
Another side to bioterrorism
The paths available to my daughter’s generation are bound to be more interesting than those available to me. I didn’t have the ability to ask for knowledge and get it instantly. I had to search for the right book, read through it, figure out I needed another book, rinse, repeat. And when the internet became more common, I waded through pages of unoptimised search results. Sure it beat figuring out where the nearest library was (which my parents probably had to do), but it was not nothing.
Complaining about it isn’t going to lead anywhere though, because look at all the beauty that enables.
Vibecoded medicine
One of the biggest threats to a person is an incurable disease. I’ve lost family members to cancer. That word from a doctor’s mouth stops your world. Literally. Modern medicine has evolved such that some cancers are preventable, some are curable, and some can be kept at bay for a while.
We’ve been looking at AI as a force multiplier for medical teams. And it is, sure. But who’s most invested in keeping oneself alive? The person who actually has the disease. Being able to listen to a diagnosis, open one’s phone, and say, “Hey Claude, I have been diagnosed with lung cancer. Here’s what the doctors say. Here’s my genome. Here’s the cancer genome. Have a look and give me a set of viruses engineered to specifically kill it without harming me,” is mind blowing! It’s the kind of capability we would look at in wonder today - probably the kind of step up in life which computers enabled when they burst onto the scene.
Or (perhaps an example closer to home), “Hey Claude, I’m going bald. Have a look at my genome, and tell me what treatments would work. If there’s nothing off the shelf, give me a set of molecules I can apply topically.“ A society which would be able to do that would be functionally closer to magic than anything available today.
Vibecoded GM crops
Now this one is a harder sell, because GM crops have been a stickler for many countries. But the benefits of being able to analyse your soil and get an LLM to think up a modification to the genetic makeup of the maize you sell so that it uses less water (because the monsoon is delayed) and can somehow fix nitrogen on its own might be the kind of capability a farmer needs to properly max out his farm yield. Couple that with localised weather forecasting and an LLM advisor telling him when to rotate his crops and we might be staring at another boom in agriculture.
An LLM-enabled farmer might be able to specifically tailor his crops for particular companies. McDonald’s famously sources a specific type of potato for its fries to avoid discolouration. Being able to modify the variety of potato you have to match that requirement opens you up into markets you may never have dreamed of.
A whole new world
And that’s just the beginning. Being able to modify genomes and have labs send you that product at your convenience can enable a completely new economy. It can enable a completely new way to experience the world, where your needs can actually be met by talking to someone. “I know a guy,” should be me reaching for my phone and giving instructions on how to make my life better.
And frankly, when I think of the kind of world this might enable, who knows, maybe the depths of despair required to destroy the world may become a relic of the quaint times before true enlightenment.